Daily Papers

Imitation learning from a large set of human demonstrations has proved to be an effective paradigm for building capable robot agents. However, the demonstrations can be extremely costly and time-consuming to collect. We introduce MimicGen, a system for automatically synthesizing large-scale, rich datasets from only a small number of human demonstrations by adapting them to new contexts. We use MimicGen to generate over 50K demonstrations across 18 tasks with diverse scene configurations, object instances, and robot arms from just ~200 human demonstrations. We show that robot agents can be effectively trained on this generated dataset by imitation learning to achieve strong performance in long-horizon and high-precision tasks, such as multi-part assembly and coffee preparation, across broad initial state distributions. We further demonstrate that the effectiveness and utility of MimicGen data compare favorably to collecting additional human demonstrations, making it a powerful and economical approach towards scaling up robot learning. Datasets, simulation environments, videos, and more at https://mimicgen.github.io .

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Open-source reinforcement learning (RL) environments have played a crucial role in driving progress in the development of AI algorithms. In modern RL research, there is a need for simulated environments that are performant, scalable, and modular to enable their utilization in a wider range of potential real-world applications. Therefore, we present Jumanji, a suite of diverse RL environments specifically designed to be fast, flexible, and scalable. Jumanji provides a suite of environments focusing on combinatorial problems frequently encountered in industry, as well as challenging general decision-making tasks. By leveraging the efficiency of JAX and hardware accelerators like GPUs and TPUs, Jumanji enables rapid iteration of research ideas and large-scale experimentation, ultimately empowering more capable agents. Unlike existing RL environment suites, Jumanji is highly customizable, allowing users to tailor the initial state distribution and problem complexity to their needs. Furthermore, we provide actor-critic baselines for each environment, accompanied by preliminary findings on scaling and generalization scenarios. Jumanji aims to set a new standard for speed, adaptability, and scalability of RL environments.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) from Human Preference-based feedback is a popular paradigm for fine-tuning generative models, which has produced impressive models such as GPT-4 and Claude3 Opus. This framework often consists of two steps: learning a reward model from an offline preference dataset followed by running online RL to optimize the learned reward model. In this work, leveraging the idea of reset, we propose a new RLHF algorithm with provable guarantees. Motivated by the fact that offline preference dataset provides informative states (i.e., data that is preferred by the labelers), our new algorithm, Dataset Reset Policy Optimization (DR-PO), integrates the existing offline preference dataset into the online policy training procedure via dataset reset: it directly resets the policy optimizer to the states in the offline dataset, instead of always starting from the initial state distribution. In theory, we show that DR-PO learns to perform at least as good as any policy that is covered by the offline dataset under general function approximation with finite sample complexity. In experiments, we demonstrate that on both the TL;DR summarization and the Anthropic Helpful Harmful (HH) dataset, the generation from DR-PO is better than that from Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Direction Preference Optimization (DPO), under the metric of GPT4 win-rate. Code for this work can be found at https://github.com/Cornell-RL/drpo.

High-reliability long-horizon robotic manipulation has traditionally relied on large-scale data and compute to understand complex real-world dynamics. However, we identify that the primary bottleneck to real-world robustness is not resource scale alone, but the distributional shift among the human demonstration distribution, the inductive bias learned by the policy, and the test-time execution distribution -- a systematic inconsistency that causes compounding errors in multi-stage tasks. To mitigate these inconsistencies, we propose χ_{0}, a resource-efficient framework with effective modules designated to achieve production-level robustness in robotic manipulation. Our approach builds off three technical pillars: (i) Model Arithmetic, a weight-space merging strategy that efficiently soaks up diverse distributions of different demonstrations, varying from object appearance to state variations; (ii) Stage Advantage, a stage-aware advantage estimator that provides stable, dense progress signals, overcoming the numerical instability of prior non-stage approaches; and (iii) Train-Deploy Alignment, which bridges the distribution gap via spatio-temporal augmentation, heuristic DAgger corrections, and temporal chunk-wise smoothing. χ_{0} enables two sets of dual-arm robots to collaboratively orchestrate long-horizon garment manipulation, spanning tasks from flattening, folding, to hanging different clothes. Our method exhibits high-reliability autonomy; we are able to run the system from arbitrary initial state for consecutive 24 hours non-stop. Experiments validate that χ_{0} surpasses the state-of-the-art π_{0.5} in success rate by nearly 250%, with only 20-hour data and 8 A100 GPUs. Code, data and models will be released to facilitate the community.

Recent advances in Reinforcement Learning with Verified Reward (RLVR) have driven the emergence of more sophisticated cognitive behaviors in large language models (LLMs), thereby enhancing their reasoning capabilities. However, in prior RLVR pipelines, the repeated use of static initial-state sampling drawn exactly from the dataset distribution during each sampling phase produced overly deterministic, low diversity model behavior, which manifested as rapid entropy collapse and hindered sustained performance gains during prolonged training. To address this issue, we introduce CURE (Critical-token-gUided Re concatenation for Entropy-collapse prevention), a two-stage framework that balances exploration and exploitation. Specifically, in the first stage, to deliberately steer the model toward novel yet coherent contexts, we re-generate at high-entropy critical tokens and jointly optimize the original and the branched trajectories. The further comparison with vanilla DAPO shows that the regeneration process achieves a better performance on math reasoning tasks while sustaining a high-level entropy degree for exploration. In the second stage, we continue training with static initial-state sampling by DAPO, intentionally placing the model in a familiar state to gradually strengthen exploitation. Extensive experiments on Qwen-2.5-Math-7B show that, compared to other RLVR methods, CURE achieves a 5% performance gain across six math benchmarks, establishing state-of-the-art performance in both entropy and accuracy. A series of experiments further validate the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/bytedance/CURE.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

Approximations based on moment-closure (MA) are commonly used to obtain estimates of the mean molecule numbers and of the variance of fluctuations in the number of molecules of chemical systems. The advantage of this approach is that it can be far less computationally expensive than exact stochastic simulations of the chemical master equation. Here we numerically study the conditions under which the MA equations yield results reflecting the true stochastic dynamics of the system. We show that for bistable and oscillatory chemical systems with deterministic initial conditions, the solution of the MA equations can be interpreted as a valid approximation to the true moments of the CME, only when the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation fall within a certain finite range. The same validity criterion for monostable systems implies that the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation must be above a certain threshold. For mean molecule numbers outside of this range of validity, the MA equations lead to either qualitatively wrong oscillatory dynamics or to unphysical predictions such as negative variances in the molecule numbers or multiple steady-state moments of the stationary distribution as the initial conditions are varied. Our results clarify the range of validity of the MA approach and show that pitfalls in the interpretation of the results can only be overcome through the systematic comparison of the solutions of the MA equations of a certain order with those of higher orders.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

Proper weight initialization prior to training has historically been one of the key factors that helped kick off the deep learning revolution. Initialization is even more crucial in "reservoir computing", where the weights of a readout layer are learned linearly while the reservoir weights are fixed and largely determine the richness, stability and memory of the resulting dynamics. In the infinite-width limit it has been shown that meaningful initializations are those sitting at an effective critical point of the randomly initialized model. The phase transition is controlled by the weight variance g^2 and separates an ordered phase from a chaotic one where information progressively degrades. Here we derive a simple criterion to estimate the critical g_c for a broad class of recurrent architectures and we show that it closely tracks the gain at which a gated-RNN reservoir achieves peak performance on a chaotic forecasting task. Finally, we argue that our criterion can serve as a design principle for future initialization schemes.

Initial value problems -- a system of ordinary differential equations and corresponding initial conditions -- can be used to describe many physical phenomena including those arise in classical mechanics. We have developed a novel approach to solve physics-based initial value problems using unsupervised machine learning. We propose a deep learning framework that models the dynamics of a variety of mechanical systems through neural networks. Our framework is flexible, allowing us to solve non-linear, coupled, and chaotic dynamical systems. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on systems including a free particle, a particle in a gravitational field, a classical pendulum, and the H\'enon--Heiles system (a pair of coupled harmonic oscillators with a non-linear perturbation, used in celestial mechanics). Our results show that deep neural networks can successfully approximate solutions to these problems, producing trajectories which conserve physical properties such as energy and those with stationary action. We note that probabilistic activation functions, as defined in this paper, are required to learn any solutions of initial value problems in their strictest sense, and we introduce coupled neural networks to learn solutions of coupled systems.

Deep learning algorithms can fare poorly when the training dataset suffers from heavy class-imbalance but the testing criterion requires good generalization on less frequent classes. We design two novel methods to improve performance in such scenarios. First, we propose a theoretically-principled label-distribution-aware margin (LDAM) loss motivated by minimizing a margin-based generalization bound. This loss replaces the standard cross-entropy objective during training and can be applied with prior strategies for training with class-imbalance such as re-weighting or re-sampling. Second, we propose a simple, yet effective, training schedule that defers re-weighting until after the initial stage, allowing the model to learn an initial representation while avoiding some of the complications associated with re-weighting or re-sampling. We test our methods on several benchmark vision tasks including the real-world imbalanced dataset iNaturalist 2018. Our experiments show that either of these methods alone can already improve over existing techniques and their combination achieves even better performance gains.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Simulations of turbulent flows in 3D are one of the most expensive simulations in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Many works have been written on surrogate models to replace numerical solvers for fluid flows with faster, learned, autoregressive models. However, the intricacies of turbulence in three dimensions necessitate training these models with very small time steps, while generating realistic flow states requires either long roll-outs with many steps and significant error accumulation or starting from a known, realistic flow state - something we aimed to avoid in the first place. Instead, we propose to approach turbulent flow simulation as a generative task directly learning the manifold of all possible turbulent flow states without relying on any initial flow state. For our experiments, we introduce a challenging 3D turbulence dataset of high-resolution flows and detailed vortex structures caused by various objects and derive two novel sample evaluation metrics for turbulent flows. On this dataset, we show that our generative model captures the distribution of turbulent flows caused by unseen objects and generates high-quality, realistic samples amenable for downstream applications without access to any initial state.

Recently, recurrent models such as state space models and linear attention have become popular due to their linear complexity in the sequence length. Thanks to their recurrent nature, in principle they can process arbitrarily long sequences, but their performance sometimes drops considerably beyond their training context lengths-i.e. they fail to length generalize. In this work, we provide comprehensive empirical and theoretical analysis to support the unexplored states hypothesis, which posits that models fail to length generalize when during training they are only exposed to a limited subset of the distribution of all attainable states (i.e. states that would be attained if the recurrence was applied to long sequences). Furthermore, we investigate simple training interventions that aim to increase the coverage of the states that the model is trained on, e.g. by initializing the state with Gaussian noise or with the final state of a different input sequence. With only 500 post-training steps (sim 0.1% of the pre-training budget), these interventions enable length generalization for sequences that are orders of magnitude longer than the training context (e.g. 2klongrightarrow 128k) and show improved performance in long context tasks, thus presenting a simple and efficient way to enable robust length generalization in general recurrent models.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

We investigate the time evolution of the Boltzmann entropy of a dilute gas of N particles, N>>1, as it undergoes a free expansion doubling its volume. The microstate of the system, a point in the 4N dimensional phase space, changes in time via Hamiltonian dynamics. Its entropy, at any time t, is given by the logarithm of the phase space volume of all the microstates giving rise to its macrostate at time t. The macrostates that we consider are defined by coarse graining the one-particle phase space into cells Δ_α. The initial and final macrostates of the system are equilibrium states in volumes V and 2V, with the same energy E and particle number N. Their entropy per particle is given, for sufficiently large systems, by the thermodynamic entropy as a function of the particle and energy density, whose leading term is independent of the size of the Δ_α. The intermediate (non-equilibrium) entropy does however depend on the size of the cells Δ_α. Its change with time is due to (i) dispersal in physical space from free motion and to (ii) the collisions between particles which change their velocities. The former depends strongly on the size of the velocity coarse graining Δv: it produces entropy at a rate proportional to Δv. This dependence is investigated numerically and analytically for a dilute two-dimensional gas of hard discs. It becomes significant when the mean free path between collisions is of the same order or larger than the length scale of the initial spatial inhomogeneity. In the opposite limit, the rate of entropy production is essentially independent of Δv and is given by the Boltzmann equation for the limit Δvrightarrow 0. We show that when both processes are active the time dependence of the entropy has a scaling form involving the ratio of the rates of its production by the two processes.

Boltzmann generators approach the sampling problem in many-body physics by combining a normalizing flow and a statistical reweighting method to generate samples in thermodynamic equilibrium. The equilibrium distribution is usually defined by an energy function and a thermodynamic state. Here we propose temperature-steerable flows (TSF) which are able to generate a family of probability densities parametrized by a choosable temperature parameter. TSFs can be embedded in generalized ensemble sampling frameworks to sample a physical system across multiple thermodynamic states.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

The initial state of neural networks plays a central role in conditioning the subsequent training dynamics. In the context of classification problems, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the structure of a neural network can condition the model to assign all predictions to the same class, even before the beginning of training, and in the absence of explicit biases. We show that the presence of this phenomenon, which we call "Initial Guessing Bias" (IGB), depends on architectural choices such as activation functions, max-pooling layers, and network depth. Our analysis of IGB has practical consequences, in that it guides architecture selection and initialization. We also highlight theoretical consequences, such as the breakdown of node-permutation symmetry, the violation of self-averaging, the validity of some mean-field approximations, and the non-trivial differences arising with depth.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Let L denote the Laplacian matrix of a graph G. We study continuous quantum walks on G defined by the transition matrix U(t)=expleft(itLright). The initial state is of the pair state form, e_a-e_b with a,b being any two vertices of G. We provide two ways to construct infinite families of graphs that have perfect pair transfer. We study a "transitivity" phenomenon which cannot occur in vertex state transfer. We characterize perfect pair state transfer on paths and cycles. We also study the case when quantum walks are generated by the unsigned Laplacians of underlying graphs and the initial states are of the plus state form, e_a+e_b. When the underlying graphs are bipartite, plus state transfer is equivalent to pair state transfer.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

This monograph attempts a theory of every 'thing' that can be distinguished from other things in a statistical sense. The ensuing statistical independencies, mediated by Markov blankets, speak to a recursive composition of ensembles (of things) at increasingly higher spatiotemporal scales. This decomposition provides a description of small things; e.g., quantum mechanics - via the Schrodinger equation, ensembles of small things - via statistical mechanics and related fluctuation theorems, through to big things - via classical mechanics. These descriptions are complemented with a Bayesian mechanics for autonomous or active things. Although this work provides a formulation of every thing, its main contribution is to examine the implications of Markov blankets for self-organisation to nonequilibrium steady-state. In brief, we recover an information geometry and accompanying free energy principle that allows one to interpret the internal states of something as representing or making inferences about its external states. The ensuing Bayesian mechanics is compatible with quantum, statistical and classical mechanics and may offer a formal description of lifelike particles.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Driven by advancements in sensing and computing, deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based methods have demonstrated significant potential in effectively tackling distribution system restoration (DSR) challenges under uncertain operational scenarios. However, the data-intensive nature of DRL poses obstacles in achieving satisfactory DSR solutions for large-scale, complex distribution systems. Inspired by the transformative impact of emerging foundation models, including large language models (LLMs), across various domains, this paper explores an innovative approach harnessing LLMs' powerful computing capabilities to address scalability challenges inherent in conventional DRL methods for solving DSR. To our knowledge, this study represents the first exploration of foundation models, including LLMs, in revolutionizing conventional DRL applications in power system operations. Our contributions are twofold: 1) introducing a novel LLM-powered Physics-Informed Decision Transformer (PIDT) framework that leverages LLMs to transform conventional DRL methods for DSR operations, and 2) conducting comparative studies to assess the performance of the proposed LLM-powered PIDT framework at its initial development stage for solving DSR problems. While our primary focus in this paper is on DSR operations, the proposed PIDT framework can be generalized to optimize sequential decision-making across various power system operations.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

In recent years, large-scale pre-trained diffusion models have demonstrated their outstanding capabilities in image and video generation tasks. However, existing models tend to produce visual objects commonly found in the training dataset, which diverges from user input prompts. The underlying reason behind the inaccurate generated results lies in the model's difficulty in sampling from specific intervals of the initial noise distribution corresponding to the prompt. Moreover, it is challenging to directly optimize the initial distribution, given that the diffusion process involves multiple denoising steps. In this paper, we introduce a Fine-tuning Initial Noise Distribution (FIND) framework with policy optimization, which unleashes the powerful potential of pre-trained diffusion networks by directly optimizing the initial distribution to align the generated contents with user-input prompts. To this end, we first reformulate the diffusion denoising procedure as a one-step Markov decision process and employ policy optimization to directly optimize the initial distribution. In addition, a dynamic reward calibration module is proposed to ensure training stability during optimization. Furthermore, we introduce a ratio clipping algorithm to utilize historical data for network training and prevent the optimized distribution from deviating too far from the original policy to restrain excessive optimization magnitudes. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in both text-to-image and text-to-video tasks, surpassing SOTA methods in achieving consistency between prompts and the generated content. Our method achieves 10 times faster than the SOTA approach. Our homepage is available at https://github.com/vpx-ecnu/FIND-website.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Prompt engineering is crucial for deploying LLMs but is poorly understood mathematically. We formalize LLM systems as a class of discrete stochastic dynamical systems to explore prompt engineering through the lens of control theory. We investigate the reachable set of output token sequences R_y(mathbf x_0) for which there exists a control input sequence mathbf u for each mathbf y in R_y(mathbf x_0) that steers the LLM to output mathbf y from initial state sequence mathbf x_0. We offer analytic analysis on the limitations on the controllability of self-attention in terms of reachable set, where we prove an upper bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) as a function of the singular values of the parameter matrices. We present complementary empirical analysis on the controllability of a panel of LLMs, including Falcon-7b, Llama-7b, and Falcon-40b. Our results demonstrate a lower bound on the reachable set of outputs R_y(mathbf x_0) w.r.t. initial state sequences mathbf x_0 sampled from the Wikitext dataset. We find that the correct next Wikitext token following sequence mathbf x_0 is reachable over 97% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. We also establish that the top 75 most likely next tokens, as estimated by the LLM itself, are reachable at least 85% of the time with prompts of kleq 10 tokens. Intriguingly, short prompt sequences can dramatically alter the likelihood of specific outputs, even making the least likely tokens become the most likely ones. This control-centric analysis of LLMs demonstrates the significant and poorly understood role of input sequences in steering output probabilities, offering a foundational perspective for enhancing language model system capabilities.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

The statistical mechanics of Gibbs is a juxtaposition of subjective, probabilistic ideas on the one hand and objective, mechanical ideas on the other. In this paper, we follow the path set out by Jaynes, including elements added subsequently to that original work, to explore the consequences of the purely statistical point of view. We show how standard methods in the equilibrium theory could have been derived simply from a description of the available problem information. In addition, our presentation leads to novel insights into questions associated with symmetry and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Two surprising consequences to be explored in further work are that (in)distinguishability factors are automatically predicted from the problem formulation and that a quantity related to the thermodynamic entropy production is found by considering information loss in non-equilibrium processes. Using the problem of ion channel thermodynamics as an example, we illustrate the idea of building up complexity by successively adding information to create progressively more complex descriptions of a physical system. Our result is that such statistical mechanical descriptions can be used to create transparent, computable, experimentally-relevant models that may be informed by more detailed atomistic simulations. We also derive a theory for the kinetic behavior of this system, identifying the nonequilibrium `process' free energy functional. The Gibbs relation for this functional is a fluctuation-dissipation theorem applicable arbitrarily far from equilibrium, that captures the effect of non-local and time-dependent behavior from transient driving forces. Based on this work, it is clear that statistical mechanics is a general tool for constructing the relationships between constraints on system information.

A proper initialization of the weights in a neural network is critical to its convergence. Current insights into weight initialization come primarily from linear activation functions. In this paper, I develop a theory for weight initializations with non-linear activations. First, I derive a general weight initialization strategy for any neural network using activation functions differentiable at 0. Next, I derive the weight initialization strategy for the Rectified Linear Unit (RELU), and provide theoretical insights into why the Xavier initialization is a poor choice with RELU activations. My analysis provides a clear demonstration of the role of non-linearities in determining the proper weight initializations.

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

Deep neural networks are usually initialized with random weights, with adequately selected initial variance to ensure stable signal propagation during training. However, selecting the appropriate variance becomes challenging especially as the number of layers grows. In this work, we replace random weight initialization with a fully deterministic initialization scheme, viz., ZerO, which initializes the weights of networks with only zeros and ones (up to a normalization factor), based on identity and Hadamard transforms. Through both theoretical and empirical studies, we demonstrate that ZerO is able to train networks without damaging their expressivity. Applying ZerO on ResNet achieves state-of-the-art performance on various datasets, including ImageNet, which suggests random weights may be unnecessary for network initialization. In addition, ZerO has many benefits, such as training ultra deep networks (without batch-normalization), exhibiting low-rank learning trajectories that result in low-rank and sparse solutions, and improving training reproducibility.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors. However, SSM is significantly influenced by the choice of the proposal. Recently Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling has shown success in many practical problems. In this paper, we propose an SMC augmented by HMC (HSMC) for inference and model learning of nonlinear SSM, which can exempt us from learning proposals and reduce the model complexity significantly. Based on the measure preserving property of HMC, the particles directly generated by transition function can approximate the posterior of latent states arbitrarily well. In order to better adapt to the local geometry of latent space, the HMC is conducted on Riemannian manifold defined by a positive definite metric. In addition, we show that the proposed HSMC method can improve SSMs realized by both Gaussian Processes (GP) and Neural Network (NN).

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

Recent advances in Conditional Diffusion Models have led to substantial capabilities in various domains. However, understanding the impact of variations in the initial seed vector remains an underexplored area of concern. Particularly, latent-based diffusion models display inconsistencies in image generation under standard conditions when initialized with suboptimal initial seed vectors. To understand the impact of the initial seed vector on generated samples, we propose a reliability evaluation framework that evaluates the generated samples of a diffusion model when the initial seed vector is subjected to various synthetic shifts. Our results indicate that slight manipulations to the initial seed vector of the state-of-the-art Stable Diffusion (Rombach et al., 2022) can lead to significant disturbances in the generated samples, consequently creating images without the effect of conditioning variables. In contrast, GLIDE (Nichol et al., 2022) stands out in generating reliable samples even when the initial seed vector is transformed. Thus, our study sheds light on the importance of the selection and the impact of the initial seed vector in the latent-based diffusion model.

We revisit quantum phase estimation algorithms for the purpose of obtaining the energy levels of many-body Hamiltonians and pay particular attention to the statistical analysis of their outputs. We introduce the mean phase direction of the parent distribution associated with eigenstate inputs as a new post-processing tool. By connecting it with the unknown phase, we find that if used as its direct estimator, it exceeds the accuracy of the standard majority rule using one less bit of resolution, making evident that it can also be inverted to provide unbiased estimation. Moreover, we show how to directly use this quantity to accurately find the energy levels when the initialized state is an eigenstate of the simulated propagator during the whole time evolution, which allows for shallower algorithms. We then use IBM Q hardware to carry out the digital quantum simulation of three toy models: a two-level system, a two-spin Ising model and a two-site Hubbard model at half-filling. Methodologies are provided to implement Trotterization and reduce the variability of results in noisy intermediate scale quantum computers.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable accomplishments in practice. The success of these networks hinges on effective initialization methods, which are vital for ensuring stable and rapid convergence during training. Recently, initialization methods that maintain identity transition within layers have shown good efficiency in network training. These techniques (e.g., Fixup) set specific weights to zero to achieve identity control. However, settings of remaining weight (e.g., Fixup uses random values to initialize non-zero weights) will affect the inductive bias that is achieved only by a zero weight, which may be harmful to training. Addressing this concern, we introduce fully identical initialization (IDInit), a novel method that preserves identity in both the main and sub-stem layers of residual networks. IDInit employs a padded identity-like matrix to overcome rank constraints in non-square weight matrices. Furthermore, we show the convergence problem of an identity matrix can be solved by stochastic gradient descent. Additionally, we enhance the universality of IDInit by processing higher-order weights and addressing dead neuron problems. IDInit is a straightforward yet effective initialization method, with improved convergence, stability, and performance across various settings, including large-scale datasets and deep models.

Layer-sequential unit-variance (LSUV) initialization - a simple method for weight initialization for deep net learning - is proposed. The method consists of the two steps. First, pre-initialize weights of each convolution or inner-product layer with orthonormal matrices. Second, proceed from the first to the final layer, normalizing the variance of the output of each layer to be equal to one. Experiment with different activation functions (maxout, ReLU-family, tanh) show that the proposed initialization leads to learning of very deep nets that (i) produces networks with test accuracy better or equal to standard methods and (ii) is at least as fast as the complex schemes proposed specifically for very deep nets such as FitNets (Romero et al. (2015)) and Highway (Srivastava et al. (2015)). Performance is evaluated on GoogLeNet, CaffeNet, FitNets and Residual nets and the state-of-the-art, or very close to it, is achieved on the MNIST, CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet datasets.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

I examine some analytical properties of a nonlinear reaction-diffusion system that has been used to model the propagation of a wildfire. I establish global-in-time existence and uniqueness of bounded mild solutions to the Cauchy problem for this system given bounded initial data. In particular, this shows that the model does not allow for thermal blow-up. If the initial temperature and fuel density also satisfy certain integrability conditions, the L^2-norms of these global solutions are uniformly bounded in time. Additionally, I use a bootstrap argument to show that small initial temperatures give rise to solutions that decay to zero as time goes to infinity, proving the existence of initial states that do not develop into travelling combustion waves.

Building Virtual Cells that can accurately simulate cellular responses to perturbations is a long-standing goal in systems biology. A fundamental challenge is that high-throughput single-cell sequencing is destructive: the same cell cannot be observed both before and after a perturbation. Thus, perturbation prediction requires mapping unpaired control and perturbed populations. Existing models address this by learning maps between distributions, but typically assume a single fixed response distribution when conditioned on observed cellular context (e.g., cell type) and the perturbation type. In reality, responses vary systematically due to unobservable latent factors such as microenvironmental fluctuations and complex batch effects, forming a manifold of possible distributions for the same observed conditions. To account for this variability, we introduce PerturbDiff, which shifts modeling from individual cells to entire distributions. By embedding distributions as points in a Hilbert space, we define a diffusion-based generative process operating directly over probability distributions. This allows PerturbDiff to capture population-level response shifts across hidden factors. Benchmarks on established datasets show that PerturbDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-cell response prediction and generalizes substantially better to unseen perturbations. See our project page (https://katarinayuan.github.io/PerturbDiff-ProjectPage/), where code and data will be made publicly available (https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/PerturbDiff).

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function piproptoe^{-U} is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.

We present a faster algorithm to generate a warm start for sampling an arbitrary logconcave density specified by an evaluation oracle, leading to the first sub-cubic sampling algorithms for inputs in (near-)isotropic position. A long line of prior work incurred a warm-start penalty of at least linear in the dimension, hitting a cubic barrier, even for the special case of uniform sampling from convex bodies. Our improvement relies on two key ingredients of independent interest. (1) We show how to sample given a warm start in weaker notions of distance, in particular q-R\'enyi divergence for q=mathcal{O}(1), whereas previous analyses required stringent infty-R\'enyi divergence (with the exception of Hit-and-Run, whose known mixing time is higher). This marks the first improvement in the required warmness since Lov\'asz and Simonovits (1991). (2) We refine and generalize the log-Sobolev inequality of Lee and Vempala (2018), originally established for isotropic logconcave distributions in terms of the diameter of the support, to logconcave distributions in terms of a geometric average of the support diameter and the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix.

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

At the core of modern generative modeling frameworks, including diffusion models, score-based models, and flow matching, is the task of transforming a simple prior distribution into a complex target distribution through stochastic paths in probability space. Schrödinger bridges provide a unifying principle underlying these approaches, framing the problem as determining an optimal stochastic bridge between marginal distribution constraints with minimal-entropy deviations from a pre-defined reference process. This guide develops the mathematical foundations of the Schrödinger bridge problem, drawing on optimal transport, stochastic control, and path-space optimization, and focuses on its dynamic formulation with direct connections to modern generative modeling. We build a comprehensive toolkit for constructing Schrödinger bridges from first principles, and show how these constructions give rise to generalized and task-specific computational methods.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

All current formulations of thermodynamics invoke some form of coarse-graining or ensembles as the supposed link between their own laws and the microscopic laws of motion. They deal only with ensemble-averages, expectation values, macroscopic limits, infinite heat baths, etc., not with the details of physical variables of individual microscopic systems. They are consistent with the laws of motion for finite systems only in certain approximations, which improve with increasing scale, given various assumptions about initial conditions which are neither specified precisely nor even thought to hold exactly in nature. Here I propose a new formulation of the zeroth, first and second laws, improving upon the axiomatic approach to thermodynamics (Carath\'eodory, 1909; Lieb & Yngvason, 1999), via the principles of the recently proposed constructor theory. Specifically, I provide a non-approximative, scale-independent formulation of 'adiabatic accessibility'; this in turn provides a non-approximative, scale-independent distinction between work and heat and reveals an unexpected connection between information theory and the first law of thermodynamics (not just the second). It also achieves the long-sought unification of the axiomatic approach with Kelvin's.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

We give a quantum algorithm for computing an epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium of a zero-sum game in a m times n payoff matrix with bounded entries. Given a standard quantum oracle for accessing the payoff matrix our algorithm runs in time O(m + ncdot epsilon^{-2.5} + epsilon^{-3}) and outputs a classical representation of the epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium. This improves upon the best prior quantum runtime of O(m + n cdot epsilon^{-3}) obtained by [vAG19] and the classic O((m + n) cdot epsilon^{-2}) runtime due to [GK95] whenever epsilon = Omega((m +n)^{-1}). We obtain this result by designing new quantum data structures for efficiently sampling from a slowly-changing Gibbs distribution.

In this paper I apply newly-proposed information-theoretic principles to thermodynamic work extraction. I show that if it is possible to extract work deterministically from a physical system prepared in any one of a set of states, then those states must be distinguishable from one another. This result is formulated independently of scale and of particular dynamical laws; it also provides a novel connection between thermodynamics and information theory, established via the law of conservation of energy (rather than the second law of thermodynamics). Albeit compatible with these conclusions, existing thermodynamics approaches cannot provide a result of such generality, because they are scale-dependent (relying on ensembles or coarse-graining) or tied to particular dynamical laws. This paper thus provides a broader foundation for thermodynamics, with implications for the theory of von Neumann's universal constructor

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

In many real-world deployments of machine learning systems, data arrive piecemeal. These learning scenarios may be passive, where data arrive incrementally due to structural properties of the problem (e.g., daily financial data) or active, where samples are selected according to a measure of their quality (e.g., experimental design). In both of these cases, we are building a sequence of models that incorporate an increasing amount of data. We would like each of these models in the sequence to be performant and take advantage of all the data that are available to that point. Conventional intuition suggests that when solving a sequence of related optimization problems of this form, it should be possible to initialize using the solution of the previous iterate -- to "warm start" the optimization rather than initialize from scratch -- and see reductions in wall-clock time. However, in practice this warm-starting seems to yield poorer generalization performance than models that have fresh random initializations, even though the final training losses are similar. While it appears that some hyperparameter settings allow a practitioner to close this generalization gap, they seem to only do so in regimes that damage the wall-clock gains of the warm start. Nevertheless, it is highly desirable to be able to warm-start neural network training, as it would dramatically reduce the resource usage associated with the construction of performant deep learning systems. In this work, we take a closer look at this empirical phenomenon and try to understand when and how it occurs. We also provide a surprisingly simple trick that overcomes this pathology in several important situations, and present experiments that elucidate some of its properties.

We establish a fundamental connection between score-based diffusion models and non-equilibrium thermodynamics by deriving performance limits based on entropy rates. Our main theoretical contribution is a lower bound on the negative log-likelihood of the data that relates model performance to entropy rates of diffusion processes. We numerically validate this bound on a synthetic dataset and investigate its tightness. By building a bridge to entropy rates - system, intrinsic, and exchange entropy - we provide new insights into the thermodynamic operation of these models, drawing parallels to Maxwell's demon and implications for thermodynamic computing hardware. Our framework connects generative modeling performance to fundamental physical principles through stochastic thermodynamics.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

The symbolic discovery of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) from trajectory data plays a pivotal role in AI-driven scientific discovery. Existing symbolic methods predominantly rely on fixed, pre-collected training datasets, which often result in suboptimal performance, as demonstrated in our case study in Figure 1. Drawing inspiration from active learning, we investigate strategies to query informative trajectory data that can enhance the evaluation of predicted ODEs. However, the butterfly effect in dynamical systems reveals that small variations in initial conditions can lead to drastically different trajectories, necessitating the storage of vast quantities of trajectory data using conventional active learning. To address this, we introduce Active Symbolic Discovery of Ordinary Differential Equations via Phase Portrait Sketching (APPS). Instead of directly selecting individual initial conditions, our APPS first identifies an informative region within the phase space and then samples a batch of initial conditions from this region. Compared to traditional active learning methods, APPS mitigates the gap of maintaining a large amount of data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that APPS consistently discovers more accurate ODE expressions than baseline methods using passively collected datasets.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

The Eigenstate Thermalization Hypothesis (ETH) has been established as a cornerstone for understanding thermalization in quantum many-body systems. Recently, there has been growing interest in the full ETH, which extends the framework of the conventional ETH and postulates a smooth function to describe the multi-point correlations among matrix elements. Within this framework, free cumulants play a central role, and most previous studies have primarily focused on closed systems. In this paper, we extend the analysis to a system-bath setup, considering both an idealized case with a random-matrix bath and a more realistic scenario where the bath is modeled as a defect Ising chain. In both cases, we uncover a universal scaling of microcanonical free cumulants of system observables with respect to the interaction strength. Furthermore we establish a connection between this scaling behavior and the thermalization dynamics of the thermal free cumulants of corresponding observables.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Many recent reasoning gains in large language models can be explained as distribution sharpening: biasing generation toward high-likelihood trajectories already supported by the pretrained model, rather than modifying its weights. A natural formalization is the sequence-level power distribution π_α(ymid x)propto p_θ(ymid x)^α (α>1), which concentrates mass on whole sequences instead of adjusting token-level temperature. Prior work shows that Metropolis--Hastings (MH) sampling from this distribution recovers strong reasoning performance, but at order-of-magnitude inference slowdowns. We introduce Power-SMC, a training-free Sequential Monte Carlo scheme that targets the same objective while remaining close to standard decoding latency. Power-SMC advances a small particle set in parallel, corrects importance weights token-by-token, and resamples when necessary, all within a single GPU-friendly batched decode. We prove that temperature τ=1/α is the unique prefix-only proposal minimizing incremental weight variance, interpret residual instability via prefix-conditioned Rényi entropies, and introduce an exponent-bridging schedule that improves particle stability without altering the target. On MATH500, Power-SMC matches or exceeds MH power sampling while reducing latency from 16--28times to 1.4--3.3times over baseline decoding. The code is available at https://github.com/ArminAzizi98/Power-SMC.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

We study a version of adversarial classification where an adversary is empowered to corrupt data inputs up to some distance varepsilon, using tools from variational analysis. In particular, we describe necessary conditions associated with the optimal classifier subject to such an adversary. Using the necessary conditions, we derive a geometric evolution equation which can be used to track the change in classification boundaries as varepsilon varies. This evolution equation may be described as an uncoupled system of differential equations in one dimension, or as a mean curvature type equation in higher dimension. In one dimension, and under mild assumptions on the data distribution, we rigorously prove that one can use the initial value problem starting from varepsilon=0, which is simply the Bayes classifier, in order to solve for the global minimizer of the adversarial problem for small values of varepsilon. In higher dimensions we provide a similar result, albeit conditional to the existence of regular solutions of the initial value problem. In the process of proving our main results we obtain a result of independent interest connecting the original adversarial problem with an optimal transport problem under no assumptions on whether classes are balanced or not. Numerical examples illustrating these ideas are also presented.

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

We propose a new approach for generative modeling based on training a neural network to be idempotent. An idempotent operator is one that can be applied sequentially without changing the result beyond the initial application, namely f(f(z))=f(z). The proposed model f is trained to map a source distribution (e.g, Gaussian noise) to a target distribution (e.g. realistic images) using the following objectives: (1) Instances from the target distribution should map to themselves, namely f(x)=x. We define the target manifold as the set of all instances that f maps to themselves. (2) Instances that form the source distribution should map onto the defined target manifold. This is achieved by optimizing the idempotence term, f(f(z))=f(z) which encourages the range of f(z) to be on the target manifold. Under ideal assumptions such a process provably converges to the target distribution. This strategy results in a model capable of generating an output in one step, maintaining a consistent latent space, while also allowing sequential applications for refinement. Additionally, we find that by processing inputs from both target and source distributions, the model adeptly projects corrupted or modified data back to the target manifold. This work is a first step towards a ``global projector'' that enables projecting any input into a target data distribution.

We examine the geometry of neural network training using the Jacobian of trained network parameters with respect to their initial values. Our analysis reveals low-dimensional structure in the training process which is dependent on the input data but largely independent of the labels. We find that the singular value spectrum of the Jacobian matrix consists of three distinctive regions: a "chaotic" region of values orders of magnitude greater than one, a large "bulk" region of values extremely close to one, and a "stable" region of values less than one. Along each bulk direction, the left and right singular vectors are nearly identical, indicating that perturbations to the initialization are carried through training almost unchanged. These perturbations have virtually no effect on the network's output in-distribution, yet do have an effect far out-of-distribution. While the Jacobian applies only locally around a single initialization, we find substantial overlap in bulk subspaces for different random seeds. Our code is available at https://github.com/EleutherAI/training-jacobian

Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.

Language models are pretrained as passive predictors with no incentive to model the consequences of their own outputs. Post-training changes this: a model producing its own responses can benefit from recognizing that it is on-policy. We present evidence that post-trained models recognize their on-policy generations, and this recognition is implicitly encoded in their output distributions. In particular, on-policy output distribution entropy is 3--4times lower than off-policy entropy, across model families and size classes. We trace part of this effect to an internal representation of input surprise, tracking the unlikeliness of the most recent input token according to the model's prior predictions, that causally modulates output entropy. One example of these phenomena can be observed in response to open-ended prompts; post-trained models (unlike pretrained models) collapse their uncertainty over the topic of their upcoming response before the first output token; violating this cached intention with a different-topic prefill results in higher output entropy. We also tested whether models can distinguish on-policy contexts from prefills via explicit verbal report. We find that they can, but that interestingly, this explicit recognition routes through a different mechanism than implicit recognition.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) has largely succeeded in verifiable domains like math and coding, where cheap verification enables scalable output selection. However, extending ITS to tasks prone to systematic failure - driven by faulty initial assumptions or unmet multidimensional constraints - typically relies on costly external solvers or brittle, model-based verifiers. Our key insight is that the intrinsic statistics of parallel sample sets, specifically length-adjusted tail entropy, provide a robust discriminative signal for solution quality without access to ground truth. Crucially, these statistics serve as a difficulty gate for adaptive compute allocation, dynamically routing problems across scaling regimes. First, Intrinsic Selection (iS) ranks candidates post-hoc, matching consensus-based algorithms across three domains and improving engineering design selection by 20% over pass@1 baselines. Second, Intrinsic Particle Filtering (iPF) generalizes this to step-level resampling, guiding generation toward high-confidence reasoning trajectories to improve pass@1 by 6.1 points on average on hard math problems. Finally, Particle Distillation (dPF) injects privileged guidance via early logit blending and KL-guided resampling, steering generation past systematic reasoning errors to satisfy expert rubrics, yielding up to 26.5% gains on complex clinical responses. Our pipeline applies seamlessly across broad-purpose, domain-specialized, and multimodal architectures, successfully extending ITS to open-ended domains without requiring trained reward models or exact ground-truth verification.

Classical state estimation algorithms rely on predefined target's state-space model, which complicates model derivation and limits adaptability when system dynamics change. Neural network based estimators offer a data-driven alternative, but rarely fuse classical estimation theory into their structure and demand large, pre-computed training sets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified state-space structure without target's state-space model and treats both the input-layer activations and all network weights as latent states to be estimated online. We instantiate this nonlinear model with three canonical estimators-the extended Kalman estimator, the unscented Kalman estimator, and the particle estimator to simulate different neural network and demonstrate its generality. We then benchmark our approach against seven leading neural network estimators across three representative scenarios. Results show that our neural network state-space estimators not only retain the robust learning capability, but also match or exceed the accuracy of both classical and pre-trained neural network methods. Code, data, and more result: github.com/ShineMinxing/PaperNNSSE.git

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

Score-based diffusion models generate samples from an unknown target distribution using a time-reversed diffusion process. While such models represent state-of-the-art approaches in industrial applications such as artificial image generation, it has recently been noted that their performance can be further improved by considering injection noise with heavy tailed characteristics. Here, I present a generalization of generative diffusion processes to a wide class of non-Gaussian noise processes. I consider forward processes driven by standard Gaussian noise with super-imposed Poisson jumps representing a finite activity Levy process. The generative process is shown to be governed by a generalized score function that depends on the jump amplitude distribution and can be estimated by minimizing a simple MSE loss as in conventional Gaussian models. Both probability flow ODE and SDE formulations are derived using basic technical effort. A detailed implementation for a pure jump process with Laplace distributed amplitudes yields a generalized score function in closed analytical form and is shown to outperform the equivalent Gaussian model in specific parameter regimes.

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.

We study a model of a branching process subject to selection, modeled by giving each family an individual fitness acting as a branching rate, and mutation, modeled by resampling the fitness of a proportion of offspring in each generation. For two large classes of fitness distributions of Gumbel type we determine the growth of the population, almost surely on survival. We then study the empirical fitness distribution in a simplified model, which is numerically indistinguishable from the original model, and show the emergence of a Gaussian travelling wave.

We propose a new method for count-based exploration in high-dimensional state spaces. Unlike previous work which relies on density models, we show that counts can be derived by averaging samples from the Rademacher distribution (or coin flips). This insight is used to set up a simple supervised learning objective which, when optimized, yields a state's visitation count. We show that our method is significantly more effective at deducing ground-truth visitation counts than previous work; when used as an exploration bonus for a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm, it outperforms existing approaches on most of 9 challenging exploration tasks, including the Atari game Montezuma's Revenge.

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and texts. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of its success is still incomplete. One mystery is the paradox between memorization and generalization: In theory, the model is trained to be exactly the same as the empirical distribution of the finite samples, whereas in practice, the trained model can generate new samples or estimate the likelihood of unseen samples. Likewise, the overwhelming diversity of distribution learning models calls for a unified perspective on this subject. This paper provides a mathematical framework such that all the well-known models can be derived based on simple principles. To demonstrate its efficacy, we present a survey of our results on the approximation error, training error and generalization error of these models, which can all be established based on this framework. In particular, the aforementioned paradox is resolved by proving that these models enjoy implicit regularization during training, so that the generalization error at early-stopping avoids the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, we provide some new results on landscape analysis and the mode collapse phenomenon.

To improve the sample efficiency of policy-gradient based reinforcement learning algorithms, we propose implicit distributional actor-critic (IDAC) that consists of a distributional critic, built on two deep generator networks (DGNs), and a semi-implicit actor (SIA), powered by a flexible policy distribution. We adopt a distributional perspective on the discounted cumulative return and model it with a state-action-dependent implicit distribution, which is approximated by the DGNs that take state-action pairs and random noises as their input. Moreover, we use the SIA to provide a semi-implicit policy distribution, which mixes the policy parameters with a reparameterizable distribution that is not constrained by an analytic density function. In this way, the policy's marginal distribution is implicit, providing the potential to model complex properties such as covariance structure and skewness, but its parameter and entropy can still be estimated. We incorporate these features with an off-policy algorithm framework to solve problems with continuous action space and compare IDAC with state-of-the-art algorithms on representative OpenAI Gym environments. We observe that IDAC outperforms these baselines in most tasks. Python code is provided.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

Initialization of parameters in deep neural networks has been shown to have a big impact on the performance of the networks (Mishkin & Matas, 2015). The initialization scheme devised by He et al, allowed convolution activations to carry a constrained mean which allowed deep networks to be trained effectively (He et al., 2015a). Orthogonal initializations and more generally orthogonal matrices in standard recurrent networks have been proved to eradicate the vanishing and exploding gradient problem (Pascanu et al., 2012). Majority of current initialization schemes do not take fully into account the intrinsic structure of the convolution operator. Using the duality of the Fourier transform and the convolution operator, Convolution Aware Initialization builds orthogonal filters in the Fourier space, and using the inverse Fourier transform represents them in the standard space. With Convolution Aware Initialization we noticed not only higher accuracy and lower loss, but faster convergence. We achieve new state of the art on the CIFAR10 dataset, and achieve close to state of the art on various other tasks.

We investigate equilibration and generalized thermalization of the quantum Harmonic chain under local quantum quench. The quench action we consider is connecting two disjoint harmonic chains of different sizes and the system jumps between two integrable settings. We verify the validity of the Generalized Gibbs Ensemble description for this infinite dimensional Hilbert space system and also identify equilibration between the subsystems as in classical systems. Using Bogoliubov transformations, we show that the eigenstates of the system prior to the quench evolve towards the Gibbs Generalized Ensemble description. Eigenstates that are more delocalized (in the sense of inverse participation ratio) prior to the quench, tend to equilibrate more rapidly. Further, through the phase space properties of a Generalized Gibbs Ensemble and the strength of stimulated emission, we identify the necessary criterion on the initial states for such relaxation at late times and also find out the states which would potentially not be described by the Gibbs Generalized Ensemble description.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a framework for learning long-range sequence tasks. An example is the structured state-space sequence (S4) layer, which uses the diagonal-plus-low-rank structure of the HiPPO initialization framework. However, the complicated structure of the S4 layer poses challenges; and, in an effort to address these challenges, models such as S4D and S5 have considered a purely diagonal structure. This choice simplifies the implementation, improves computational efficiency, and allows channel communication. However, diagonalizing the HiPPO framework is itself an ill-posed problem. In this paper, we propose a general solution for this and related ill-posed diagonalization problems in machine learning. We introduce a generic, backward-stable "perturb-then-diagonalize" (PTD) methodology, which is based on the pseudospectral theory of non-normal operators, and which may be interpreted as the approximate diagonalization of the non-normal matrices defining SSMs. Based on this, we introduce the S4-PTD and S5-PTD models. Through theoretical analysis of the transfer functions of different initialization schemes, we demonstrate that the S4-PTD/S5-PTD initialization strongly converges to the HiPPO framework, while the S4D/S5 initialization only achieves weak convergences. As a result, our new models show resilience to Fourier-mode noise-perturbed inputs, a crucial property not achieved by the S4D/S5 models. In addition to improved robustness, our S5-PTD model averages 87.6% accuracy on the Long-Range Arena benchmark, demonstrating that the PTD methodology helps to improve the accuracy of deep learning models.

Scalable sampling of molecular states in thermodynamic equilibrium is a long-standing challenge in statistical physics. Boltzmann generators tackle this problem by pairing normalizing flows with importance sampling to obtain uncorrelated samples under the target distribution. In this paper, we extend the Boltzmann generator framework with two key contributions, denoting our framework Sequential Boltzmann Generators (SBG). The first is a highly efficient Transformer-based normalizing flow operating directly on all-atom Cartesian coordinates. In contrast to the equivariant continuous flows of prior methods, we leverage exactly invertible non-equivariant architectures which are highly efficient during both sample generation and likelihood evaluation. This efficiency unlocks more sophisticated inference strategies beyond standard importance sampling. In particular, we perform inference-time scaling of flow samples using a continuous-time variant of sequential Monte Carlo, in which flow samples are transported towards the target distribution with annealed Langevin dynamics. SBG achieves state-of-the-art performance w.r.t. all metrics on peptide systems, demonstrating the first equilibrium sampling in Cartesian coordinates of tri-, tetra- and hexa-peptides that were thus far intractable for prior Boltzmann generators.

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

The friction coefficient of a particle can depend on its position as it does when the particle is near a wall. We formulate the dynamics of particles with such state-dependent friction coefficients in terms of a general Langevin equation with multiplicative noise, whose evaluation requires the introduction of specific rules. Two common conventions, the Ito and the Stratonovich, provide alternative rules for evaluation of the noise, but other conventions are possible. We show the requirement that a particle's distribution function approach the Boltzmann distribution at long times dictates that a drift term must be added to the Langevin equation. This drift term is proportional to the derivative of the diffusion coefficient times a factor that depends on the convention used to define the multiplicative noise. We explore the consequences of this result in a number examples with spatially varying diffusion coefficients. We also derive path integral representations for arbitrary interpretation of the noise, and use it in a perturbative study of correlations in a simple system.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

We introduce Psi-Sampler, an SMC-based framework incorporating pCNL-based initial particle sampling for effective inference-time reward alignment with a score-based generative model. Inference-time reward alignment with score-based generative models has recently gained significant traction, following a broader paradigm shift from pre-training to post-training optimization. At the core of this trend is the application of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to the denoising process. However, existing methods typically initialize particles from the Gaussian prior, which inadequately captures reward-relevant regions and results in reduced sampling efficiency. We demonstrate that initializing from the reward-aware posterior significantly improves alignment performance. To enable posterior sampling in high-dimensional latent spaces, we introduce the preconditioned Crank-Nicolson Langevin (pCNL) algorithm, which combines dimension-robust proposals with gradient-informed dynamics. This approach enables efficient and scalable posterior sampling and consistently improves performance across various reward alignment tasks, including layout-to-image generation, quantity-aware generation, and aesthetic-preference generation, as demonstrated in our experiments.

In this work, we present a naive initialization scheme for word vectors based on a dense, independent co-occurrence model and provide preliminary results that suggest it is competitive and warrants further investigation. Specifically, we demonstrate through information-theoretic minimum description length (MDL) probing that our model, EigenNoise, can approach the performance of empirically trained GloVe despite the lack of any pre-training data (in the case of EigenNoise). We present these preliminary results with interest to set the stage for further investigations into how this competitive initialization works without pre-training data, as well as to invite the exploration of more intelligent initialization schemes informed by the theory of harmonic linguistic structure. Our application of this theory likewise contributes a novel (and effective) interpretation of recent discoveries which have elucidated the underlying distributional information that linguistic representations capture from data and contrast distributions.

Is it possible to perform linear regression on datasets whose labels are shuffled with respect to the inputs? We explore this question by proposing several estimators that recover the weights of a noisy linear model from labels that are shuffled by an unknown permutation. We show that the analog of the classical least-squares estimator produces inconsistent estimates in this setting, and introduce an estimator based on the self-moments of the input features and labels. We study the regimes in which each estimator excels, and generalize the estimators to the setting where partial ordering information is available in the form of experiments replicated independently. The result is a framework that enables robust inference, as we demonstrate by experiments on both synthetic and standard datasets, where we are able to recover approximate weights using only shuffled labels. Our work demonstrates that linear regression in the absence of complete ordering information is possible and can be of practical interest, particularly in experiments that characterize populations of particles, such as flow cytometry.

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, and rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Quantum generative models use the intrinsic probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics to learn and reproduce complex probability distributions. In this paper, we present an implementation of a 3-qubit quantum circuit Born machine trained to model a 3-bit Gaussian distribution using a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence loss and parameter-shift gradient optimization. The variational quantum circuit consists of layers of parameterized rotations and entangling gates, and is optimized such that the Born rule output distribution closely matches the target distribution. We detail the mathematical formulation of the model distribution, the KL divergence cost function, and the parameter-shift rule for gradient evaluation. Training results on a statevector simulator show that the KL divergence is minimized to near zero, and the final generated distribution aligns quantitatively with the target probabilities. We analyze the convergence behavior and discuss the implications for scalability and quantum advantage. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of small-scale quantum generative learning and provide insight into the training dynamics of quantum circuit models.

I introduce a novel mathematical framework integrating topological dynamics, operator algebras, and ergodic geometry to study lattices of asynchronous metric dynamical systems. Each node in the lattice carries an internal flow represented by a one-parameter family of operators, evolving on its own time scale. I formalize stratified state spaces capturing multiple levels of synchronized behavior, define an asynchronous evolution metric that quantifies phase-offset distances between subsystems, and characterize emergent coherent topologies arising when subsystems synchronize. Within this framework, I develop formal operators for the evolution of each subsystem and give precise conditions under which phase-aligned synchronization occurs across the lattice. The main results include: (1) the existence and uniqueness of coherent (synchronized) states under a contractive coupling condition, (2) stability of these coherent states and criteria for their emergence as a collective phase transition in a continuous operator topology, and (3) the influence of symmetries, with group-invariant coupling leading to flow-invariant synchrony subspaces and structured cluster dynamics. Proofs are given for each theorem, demonstrating full mathematical rigor. In a final section, I discuss hypothetical applications of this framework to symbolic lattice systems (e.g. subshifts), to invariant group actions on dynamical lattices, and to operator fields over stratified manifolds in the spirit of noncommutative geometry. Throughout, I write in the first person to emphasize the exploratory nature of this work. The paper avoids any reference to cosmology or observers, focusing instead on clean, formal mathematics suitable for a broad array of dynamical systems.

Large language model post-training methods such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT), reinforcement learning (RL), and distillation are often analyzed through their loss functions: maximum likelihood, policy gradients, forward KL, reverse KL, or related objective-level variants. We study a complementary factor: the state distribution on which supervision is applied. For an autoregressive policy, a state is a prompt plus generated prefix. SFT trains on fixed dataset states, while RL and on-policy distillation (OPD) train on states induced by the current learner. We formalize post-training as state-distribution shaping and run a controlled smallscale study using Qwen3-0.6B-Base on GSM8K, with TruthfulQA and MMLU as retention evaluations. Our results show three phenomena. First, a mild SFT run improves GSM8K with little forgetting, while a stress SFT run causes substantial retention loss. Second, OPD from a degraded SFT teacher surpasses that teacher on GSM8K, TruthfulQA, and MMLU, despite using the teacher as its only supervision source. Third, a lightweight on-policy RL run improves GSM8K while preserving retention. These results support a state-centric view of post-training: the source and locality of training states can be as important as the form of the supervision signal.